Gartner warns that any prospect of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is at least 10 years away and may not be reached for sure. It may not even be a worthwhile endeavor, says the analyst.
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AGI has become a controversial topic in recent years as builders of large language models (LLMs), such as OpenAI, make bold claims that they have established a short-term path to human intelligence. Meanwhile, others from the discipline of cognitive science have disdained the idea, arguing that the concept of AGI is poorly understood and the LLM approach is inadequate.
In its Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2024, Gartner says it distills "key insights" from more than 2,000 technologies and, using its framework, produces a concise set of "must-know" emerging technologies that have the potential to deliver advantages over with the next two to ten years.
The consultancy notes that GenAI – subject to volumes of industry hype and billions in investment – is about to enter the dreaded "valley of disillusionment". Arun Chandrasekaran, Gartner's distinguished VP analyst, told The Register:
