The demographic transition model was initially proposed in 1929 by demographer Warren Thompson. The model has four stages: pre-industrial, urbanizing/industrializing, mature industrial, and post-industrial.

These include the progression of population growth rates; fertility and mortality rates; urbanization; pattern of migration and differences in the economic factors responsible for the timing and speed of these drivers of demographic change.

Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a low population growth rate due to a high birth rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and a high death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people).

Demographic Transition Model Russia does not have declining birth rates and low death rates that would classify it as stage 3.

Possible examples of Stage 5 countries are Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal and Ukraine. According to the DTM each of these countries should have negative population growth but this has not necessarily been the case.

As such, Stage 3 is often viewed as a marker of significant development. Examples of Stage 3 countries are Botswana, Colombia, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates, just to name a few.

Examples of countries in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition are Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of Europe, Singapore, South Korea, and the U.S.

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is based on historical population trends of two demographic characteristics – birth rate and death rate – to suggest that a country’s total population growth rate cycles through stages as that country develops economically.

Mexico is at an advanced stage in its demographic transition.

stage 4

Typically, mortality patterns distinguish three major successive stages of the epidemiologic transition: The Age of Pestilence and Famine when mortality is high and fluctuating, thus precluding sustained population growth.

It is in stage 3 because the citizens of Mexico aren’t reproducing as much as they used to and now educated women are learning how to prevent their pregnancy’s. This is shown by the dropping crude birth rates as opposed to the crude death rates which were already low.

The third transition phase is termed the “Age of Degenerative and Man-Made [sic] Diseases”. With declines in mortality rates, average life expectancy increases to > 50 years, fertility becomes more important to population growth, and the anthropogenic and biologic determinants of disease also change.

One unofficial threshold for a country with a developed economy is a GDP per capita of $12,000….(2017 est.)