Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.

The Short Answer: A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Observational data collected by doppler radar, radiosondes, weather satellites, buoys and other instruments are fed into computerized NWS numerical forecast models. The models use equations, along with new and past weather data, to provide forecast guidance to our meteorologists.

The goal of weather prediction is to provide information people and organizations can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance societal benefits, including protection of life and property, public health and safety, and support of economic prosperity and quality of life.

Climate and weather strongly control what fruits and vegetables can grow. Another important aspect of weather that has a huge effect on our lives is extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts, fires (forest fires), floods, heat waves, or cold snaps and winter storms.

Severe weather can happen anytime, in any part of the country. Severe weather can include hazardous conditions produced by thunderstorms, including damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, flooding and flash flooding, and winter storms associated with freezing rain, sleet, snow and strong winds.

In terms of immediate danger, destruction, and threat to lives, tornadoes are considered the most deadly weather phenomena. In terms of total fatalities measured over time, drought and flooding are by far the most deadly and devastating.

High winds, hail, excessive precipitation, and wildfires are forms and effects of severe weather, as are thunderstorms, downbursts, tornadoes, waterspouts, tropical cyclones, and extratropical cyclones. Regional and seasonal severe weather phenomena include blizzards (snowstorms), ice storms, and duststorms.

The answer is that— while weather will always be a chaotic system— shifts in our climate do increase the likelihood of extreme weather events. Scientists are in near universal agreement that our climate is changing and that human activity is accelerating those changes.

Extreme Weather

1. Read How to stay cool in a heat wave.
2. Create an area of shade in your garden where you can sit to cool off.
3. Remember hot weather can affect transport networks, making it difficult to get around.
4. Close the blinds and curtains throughout the day to shade rooms on hot summers days to keep the heat out.